A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

by | Mar 16, 2020 | 2020, All Publications, ASIA, China, Complexity, Dorondo, D., Future Global Comp, Geopolitics, Jiang, M., MIDDLE EAST, Qualitative Analysis, Russia, SMA Publication

Authors | Editors: Jiang, M. (Creighton University); Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) Report Abstract and Methodology This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a...
SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

by | Mar 16, 2020 | 2020, All Publications, Complexity, Kuznar, L., MIDDLE EAST, Peterson, N., Qualitative Analysis, SMA Publication

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think...
Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

by | Mar 16, 2020 | 2020, All Publications, Day, J., Kuznar, L., Machine Learning, MIDDLE EAST, Quantitative Analysis, SMA Publication, Stability, Statistical Analysis, Terrorism

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Day, J. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a...
SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)

by | Mar 13, 2020 | 2020, All Publications, Audio File, Bios, Briefing, CENTCOM, Conceptual Modeling, Cooley, S., Jafri, A., MIDDLE EAST, Narrative Analysis, Pagano, S., Peterson, N., Qualitative Analysis, Reachback, SMA Speaker Series, Social Media Analysis, SPEAKER SERIES, Terrorism

Speakers: Cooley, S. (Oklahoma State University); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.); Wright, N. (Intelligent Biology); Polansky, S. (NSI, Inc.); Kaltenthaler, K. (University of Akron); Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Lee, H. (US Army TRADOC) Date: 10 March 2020 Speaker...