A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

Authors | Editors: Jiang, M. (Creighton University); Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) Report Abstract and Methodology This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a...
SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think...
Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Day, J. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a...
SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)

Speakers: Cooley, S. (Oklahoma State University); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.); Wright, N. (Intelligent Biology); Polansky, S. (NSI, Inc.); Kaltenthaler, K. (University of Akron); Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Lee, H. (US Army TRADOC) Date: 10 March 2020 Speaker...
Population Dynamics and Radicalization in the CENTCOM AOR: Post-Brexit EU2 + 1 and the UN vs. a US-led Coalition of the Willing

Population Dynamics and Radicalization in the CENTCOM AOR: Post-Brexit EU2 + 1 and the UN vs. a US-led Coalition of the Willing

Author | Editor: Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) Introduction In 2020, the States of the European Union (EU), as well as NATO’s European members and those States not enjoying membership of one or both organizations (e.g. the United Kingdom, Austria,...
Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf

Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf

“Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf” Authors | Editors: Aviles, W. (NSI, Inc.); Rieger, T. (NSI, Inc.); Goncharova, A. (NSI, Inc.) Bottom Line Up Front Experts contend that the risk of militarization of the dispute between Qatar and...