SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion- Black Swan Scenarios

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion- Black Swan Scenarios

Speakers: Ackerman, G. (University at Albany); Clifford, D. (University at Albany); Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University); Jiang, M. (Creighton University); Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.) Date: 27 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted...
Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Black Swan Scenarios

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Black Swan Scenarios

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Canna, S. (NSI, Inc.); Popp, G. (NSI, Inc.) Report Preview At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics...
SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think...
Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Day, J. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a...